Farmers are already receiving ECAP payments just days after enrollment opened! If you haven’t signed up yet, now’s the time to act. The process is simple, using prefilled 2024 crop data from your 578 form. Keep in mind key factors like shareholder reductions, prevent plant eligibility, and prorated payments. The deadline to report acres is August 15th, so don’t wait—contact your local FSA office today.

Managed Money’s position in the grain markets has shifted dramatically, cutting over 1 billion bushels from its net long in just weeks. With tariff concerns rattling the market, corn and soybean prices have reacted, yet exports remain steady—for now. As uncertainty looms, how will speculators and global supply trends shape the next move? Dive into the data and insights in this blog.

Tariffs have sparked debate in grain markets, but basis plays a bigger role. Soybean bids vanished largely due to seasonal trends, while corn remained stable, driven by rail logistics and freight costs. North Dakota farmers benefit from new crush facilities handling half the state’s soybeans, creating more stable demand. With uncertainty ahead, proactive marketing is key.

Soybean seasonality lacks clear patterns like corn. Over 20 years, prices stay between 98%-102%, with a slight rise in May-July and a dip at harvest. No distinct trend emerges, but recent data suggests selling before March 1st may be beneficial. Market volatility, driven by trade wars and South American production, hints at a shifting seasonality. Adaptability remains key in soybean marketing.

Spring crop insurance prices are set, with corn at $4.72, soybeans at $10.57, and wheat at $6.60. Lower volatility may reduce premiums, but rising input costs still squeeze margins. With a 21% subsidy increase for the Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) and the Farm Bill Election deadline extended to April 15, now is the time to reassess coverage before the March 15 policy change deadline.

Wheat has broken out of its trend, driven by a stronger Ruble, increased volatility, and shifting global conditions. While winterkill concerns persist, global wheat supply remains stable. U.S. markets are still well-supplied, but export sales have improved. With headline risks and uncertain trader sentiment, the coming weeks will be critical in shaping the market’s next move.

With the January–March PNW export program winding down, corn markets face seasonal slowdowns in March and early spring. Freight prices remain elevated, while basis stays subdued due to strong commercial bookings. June–July typically bring high export demand, but reduced ethanol competition could keep basis in the -30s range. Swift action will be key as market opportunities arise.

Corn futures follow a seasonal pattern, with historical trends showing price peaks in May-June and sharp declines mid-summer. A 20-year analysis confirms seasonality remains consistent, though recent years show stronger early-year prices and fewer post-June selling opportunities. As 2025 planning begins, leveraging these insights can enhance marketing decisions.

Wheat prices are showing signs of life after a quiet winter, with rising values in the Black Sea region and a strengthening euro. MATIF wheat and the wheat-corn price relationship suggest potential for a breakout, but with weak basis and futures spreads, the market remains in wait-and-see mode.

Managed Money has made a dramatic shift in corn ownership, swinging from a record short position in 2024 to a massive long position heading into 2025. While this buying spree has lifted prices, the risk of a sudden selloff remains high, especially if bearish factors emerge this spring. With farmers holding large unsold portions of their crop, understanding the interplay between market speculation and fundamental supply shifts will be critical for navigating the year ahead.

Crop insurance is more than a safety net—it’s a key tool for managing risk and optimizing grain marketing. With tighter 2025 margins, increased subsidies, and evolving coverage options, farmers can better align insurance guarantees with market opportunities. Leveraging crop insurance strategically can protect revenue and enhance profitability in an uncertain ag landscape.

Profitability projections for the 2025 crop year remain uncertain, with breakeven prices and margins varying by region. While corn tends to outperform soybeans in fringe areas, the reverse is true in the central corn belt. Farmers are hesitant to lock in prices, as many would be selling at a loss. With tight margins, careful acreage planning and maximizing productivity will be key for the year ahead.

In early December, U.S. corn farmers ramped up sales, driven by cash flow needs, improved basis, and the highest cash prices since 2021. This surge was reflected in weakening futures spreads and increased short positions. Now, the market is at a crossroads—will bullish spreads hold, or has the rally peaked? Key indicators like basis stability, futures spreads, and price trends will shape the next move.

With shrinking working capital, rising input costs, and outdated farm safety nets, U.S. farmers are feeling the pressure. The proposed FARM Act offers potential financial relief, but with a $21 billion price tag, its passage is uncertain. As Congress races toward a December 20th deadline, another Farm Bill extension seems likely. The question remains: will lawmakers address the growing strain on the farm economy, or is this the beginning of the end for traditional farm support?

Minneapolis wheat bids are heating up, with strong domestic demand and lower rail freight costs driving historically high basis levels. Spot floor auctions reveal competitive bidding, particularly for 14.0% protein spring wheat, trading between +1.80H and +2.60H. Meanwhile, declining secondary freight rates—nearly $1,000 per car lower than earlier in the season—are further supporting elevated prices. As elevators navigate margins and market conditions, the strength of the spot floor continues to influence broader wheat pricing trends.

Corn basis and spreads remain firm despite a record yield, driven by strong ethanol production, higher export sales, and lower stocks-to-use projections. Basis has rallied while spreads have tightened, signaling strong demand despite an initially undersold farmer position.

Corn export sales are off to a strong start, up 1.4% from last year, with shipments 34% higher. While some believe countries are frontloading due to political uncertainty, steady shipments suggest strong demand. Key buyers like Mexico and Colombia are purchasing record amounts, while China remains absent. With global stocks tightening among major exporters, the U.S. is well-positioned to capture more business, especially with lower corn prices supporting demand.