Profitability in 2025: A Closer Look at Crop Margins
Have you started examining prices for the 2025 crop year? If so, you may not be feeling particularly optimistic about the numbers you’ve seen so far. To gain a clearer picture of where profits are trending, I’ve compiled some data based on recent prices and projections.
Futures Contracts Examined
To begin, I looked at the closing prices for the following 2025 futures contracts:
December 2025 Corn
November 2025 Soybeans
September 2025 Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS)
Regions
For this analysis, I compared profitability across several regions:
Southeastern North Dakota
High-producing areas in Central Illinois
Western Kentucky (full-season soybeans)
Comparative Data by Region
The table below summarizes the yield, cost per acre, breakeven prices, and basis assumptions for each crop and region:
Corn to Soy Yield Ratio
ND 3.95x
Central IL 3.37x
Kentucky 3.45x
The values used came from our team’s best estimates after using university numbers as a baseline. It is difficult to generalize a large area or entire state with one set of numbers, and that isn’t the focus of this article. My goal was to use our best guess at fair numbers in a few different places to compare harvest profitability over the past few months.
Average Profit per Acre
Using the closing prices from August 1, 2024, to January 6, 2025, I calculated the margin per acre based on the breakeven values. The graphs below show the average profit per acre for each crop and region during that period:
Note: Negative values indicate a loss per acre
Note: Negative values indicate a loss per acre
Note: Negative values indicate a loss per acre
Key Takeaways
Looking at these averages, it’s no surprise that farmers aren’t eager to lock in prices for the 2025 crop just yet. Selling bushels at a loss is rarely a winning strategy. However, this data highlights a crucial point: while corn outperforms soybeans to varying degrees in fringe production areas, soybeans outperform corn in the central corn belt. Dare I say that the futures price ratio of corn to soybeans is less important than the yield ratio of corn to soybeans?
I’ve been hearing that corn acres are going to be much higher this year because soybean prices are too low. I’m not necessarily disagreeing, but I think the difference in net profit (loss) is closer than people realize. The trend suggests a need for careful consideration when planning acreage allocation for the upcoming crop year – productivity is going to be the best bet.
Casey Christianson
Quantitative Analyst | CODAK Market Advisor, Northern Plains
With a background in advanced mathematics and statistics, Casey’s expertise helps CODAK increase objectivity, speed, and precision in risk management decisions, driving greater client profitability.
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