Corn Sales: Will the Hot Start Continue?
Export sales are up. The USDA has export sales at 2325 million bushels (mb) for 2024/25 compared to 2292 mb last marketing year, which is a 1.4 percent increase. High sales in October have left people wondering:
Are countries front-loading because of political reasons?
Can this demand continue, which would make the projected year-over-year increase too low?
Export sales have jumped relative to last year, and sales are approaching the line from 2021/22 (a year that ended at 2472 mb). Key difference between this year and 2021/22: China is not among the “known” buyers.
Corn shipments are up. Compared to last year, shipments are 34% higher through the first 10 weeks. Many who think countries are “frontloading” would say this supports the narrative because countries want to get the bushels before potential tariffs go into place after the election results.
However, the data also supports the idea of better demand because sales only hold up if shipments take place. With shipments cruising, higher export sales should be possible. Shipments in 2021/22 started out significantly slower than this year’s pace.
Major corn importers from the US in the last decade, including this year’s data as of November 15th.
Key takeaways and questions:
Mexico and Colombia bought more corn in 2023/24 than any other year (going back to 2014/15)
China has been taking a major step back (similar to what we were used to before 2020).
Will Mexico and Colombia continue buying more bushels?
Which countries make up the “Unknown” category?
Conclusion. With most of the marketing year ahead of us, it’s hard to know which narrative will hold true. A few reasons I am on the side of strong demand continuing:
The big buyers in corn so far are consistent buyers.
Shipments are keeping up to support more sales.
Prices are low compared to the past few years.
Global stocks are tighter for major exporters. USDA is now projecting the lowest stocks-to-use ratio by far for the Major Exporter Group (Russia, Argentina, Ukraine, Brazil, South Africa) dating back at least to 2010.
This puts the US in an even better position to absorb any additional export business with corn price well-below normal demand destruction levels. I believe countries will continue coming to the US for corn needs.
Casey Christianson
Quantitative Analyst | CODAK Market Advisor, Northern Plains
With a background in advanced mathematics and statistics, Casey’s expertise helps CODAK increase objectivity, speed, and precision in risk management decisions, driving greater client profitability.
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