PNW Soybean Shipment Window Closing
We are on the cusp of soybean harvest firing in South America and approaching the end of the US PNW export window. While planting delays in Brazil could slightly extend our export timeline, early harvest in Brazil typically kicks off in January. Minimal offers are coming out of Brazil for January, whereas U.S. bids are hovering around $40 per metric ton higher. Looking ahead to February, U.S. bids vanish entirely, while Brazil remains steady, offering bids in the $410–$425 per metric ton range.
ND soybean basis has been signaling that our export window is closing for a while now. Currently, the average commercial basis at elevators on the eastern side of North Dakota sits at -$.90H. However, back-to-back export sales to China on Monday and Tuesday gave the basis a much-needed bump, lifting FOB prices by about 20 cents.
Most elevators aren’t eager to get aggressive with soybeans this time of year, as our export window continues to shrink. Without enough soybeans to fill a shuttle train, elevators are left with two choices:
Sit on the soybeans until harvest taking up bin space
Look to move them to local crush, likely taking a hit on margins
Fortunately, the two crush facilities on the eastern edge of North Dakota are keeping basis relatively firm for now. Looking ahead, the North Dakota soybean market will shift its eyes from PNW exports to local crush plants. Soybean crush bids will increasingly focus on margins and the availability of supply. Local plants have mentioned that if they can’t meet demand, they may need to source soybeans by rail, which could impact the market dynamics further.
For now, it’s a waiting game as we watch the final days of the PNW export window slip by.
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
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