US PNW Corn Exports: Market Trends & Outlook
With February already halfway through, we are approaching the final stretch of the January–March PNW export program. March tends to be one of the quieter months on the commercial side, as many producers prefer to avoid the challenges of thawing bin sites and seasonal load restrictions. This leaves many questions about what route to go with corn in the bin.
Freight and Basis Trend
Front-month freight continues to chop around, but a large shipping program has kept freight prices elevated due to the high volume of movement. Nearby basis remains subdued, as a hefty commercial book of business has suppressed values.
Spring & Summer Market Dynamics
April and May share a similar sentiment to March, as spring planting takes priority and grain deliveries take a backseat. However, June and July historically brought strong PNW export activity, with high shuttle movement from North Dakota during that period.
Unlike in previous years, there is less competition from the ethanol industry in North Dakota, as many plants have already secured their summer corn supply. Historically, we’ve seen June–July basis levels range from -$0.25 to -$0.35, driven by robust PNW export demand. This year, with reduced competition, it may be more difficult to push into the -20s range, though sustained export sales and strong demand suggest that trading in the -30s range remains a realistic scenario.
Key Takeaways
As we navigate the final weeks of the Jan–March program, staying proactive will be critical. Like earlier bids, pushes will come and go quickly, so when opportunities arise, swift action will be necessary. Bids won’t be sticking around for long as bushels will be looking for homes.
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
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